Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
